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May 14, 2013 / compassioninpolitics

Reflections on the job turn, bond market DA, and inflation

Transportation investment = jobs.

Jobs = economy or Lack of jobs killing the recovery. The later is probably better IMHO. It seems to have uniqueness.

Not sure how bond investors react to jobs.

There are massive empirical denials of this DA–such that its risk is almost functionally zero.

The challenge is….they **might** run inflation bad on your turns (ie economic growth now = bad). But probably not. Not sure how good this story is these days.

They can claim a kind of “goldilocks”–we’re good where we are now….but growth or loss of growth = bad. This isn’t the best set up because the business
cycle non-uniques it pretty hardcore.


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